Is the Arab Spring moving into winter?

So many changes have occurred in the Middle East. In the beginning of the various uprisings, many of us were filled with hope of a new order - a sort of wind of change that would bring the Middle East towards democracy. It was a dream. Despite much populist rhetoric about democracy it is doubtful if that will ever be achieved.

Now nearly two years later - not only is there no democracy, those wonderful, educated young people who were at the forefront of the various uprisings, have disappeared. They were the hope of many of us as the despotic Middle East regimes started crumbling. The despotic regimes have been replaced by Islamist regimes that wish to install Sharia law. It could happen in Syria with great cost to human freedom and democracy which never existed under the brutal Bashar al Assad regime. The rebels there are also slaughtering innocent people no less than the soldiers of Assad. The future in Syria can be described as very bleak.

If we look at Egypt, we see that there was a semblance of democracy when the people voted for the Muslim Brotherhood. The new Egyptian President, Mohammed Morsi, seemed promising despite his support from the Muslim Brotherhood. However, when one Islamist party (in Egypt - the Muslim Brotherhood) shows signs of pragmatism towards the Western nations such as the US, other splinter extremist Islamist terror groups such as the Salafis exploit the economic misery of the people and create a form of anarchy against the elected leader. Morsi is trying to be pragmatic. He needs foreign investment which includes aid. Egypt today, torn by turmoil, has to rebuild its economy and tourist trade.

What is happening in Egypt today is a big disappointment and this is reflected in the other Arab countries where, tyrants fell and are still falling.

Morsi cannot afford to antagonize Israel. Both Israel and Egypt have a common enemy - Bedouin Islamist terror groups as well as El Qaeda which seek to attack Israelis and even the Egyptian Security Forces. They have their own agenda – conversion to Islam by force and the destruction of the “infidel” who are non-Moslems by their definition.

Security is in the common interest of both Israel and Egypt as both have suffered from Islamist terror group infiltration. The peace treaty between Egypt and Israel
will hold. Morsi is in no position to change the conditions of the treaty even though he has indicated his desire of doing this. The Palestinian refugee problem is always a convenient bandwagon on which to climb as well as the Israeli Occupation. It is doubtful if Egypt cares about Palestinian welfare. Ahmedinajad of Iran and Assad of Syria are not interested in Palestinian suffering at all. They use this issue to bash Israel as a digression from their own brutal treatment of their people. Even President Morsi has used the Palestinian issue to gain points in his speech at the UN General Assembly.

While the Israeli Occupation is a very complex problem, it is also an obstacle for an independent Palestinian state because the illegal settlements create a situation that makes the two-state solution impossible to achieve. Despite this, nothing in Palestine can be compared to the slaughter going on in Syria and the massive refugee problem that this has created. Massive infringements of human rights in Iran and Syria have not been given much expression in the UN General Assembly speeches of world leaders.

The direction that Egypt is moving remains unclear and the economic problems that need to be solved are immense because of the intense poverty and neglect under the tyrannical rule of Mubarak.

All the Arab countries that have changed their leadership during the Arab Spring are moving towards more fundamentalist Islamist rule with the strengthening of Islamist extremist groups.

The release of an anti-Islam film in the US resulted in a wave of Islamist terror in the Middle East. The US ambassador in Libya was murdered in Benghazi as a frenzied mob of Islamist extremists went on the rampage killing innocent people. This sweep of violent demonstrations against Israel and the US reached epidemic proportions. While the film was disgusting and hateful towards Islam and protest against its release was justified. Indiscriminate killing of people because of violent protest was tragic and must be condemned. It is the duty of Muslim spiritual leaders not only to condemn this shocking film but also to condemn the killing of innocent people. This just did not occur. Islamist extremism and hate goes on the rampage when there is an affront real or imaginary with devastating fatal results.

Why are the West not adopting a more even handed policy towards Islamist terror groups? They make impotent clucking noises condemning this terror and a few days later everything is forgotten until the next brutal Islamist terror act.

Syria is in the throes of a bloody revolution. Innocent people are being slaughtered not only by the evil Assad regime but also by an opposition of militants that are on the rampage. In this sweeping wave of slaughter by both Assad and the various militias which are not united are the Syrian people caught in the cross-fire. There is not much medical aid to speak of and those who are lucky to escape the killing fields of Syria find themselves in squalid refugee camps in Turkey and Jordan. 

The hope of change in Syria from the cruelty of Assad and his brutal forces to a democratic alternative is dim. The rebel forces are disunited and are composed of cruel militias committing the same crimes as the shaky Assad regime. It is a field day for Islamist terror groups to pick up the pieces. This is fertile ground for El Qaeda and its various militias.

Why is the UN indifferent to the slaughter in Syria? There seems to be so much Israel bashing in that forum and allowing the evil Ahmadinajad of Iran to be given a well publicized platform to sprout his desire to destroy Israel on his visit to the UN General Assembly Convention. This evil tyrant should be ignored. He is not worthy of the attention that is being showered on him.

Ahmidinajad is a Nazi and the butcher of Iran. He wants to wipe Israel off the face of the earth and he is helping Bashar el Assad to murder his own Syrian people. He should not have been allowed to address the UN General Assembly. Why did so few delegates walk out when he spoke?

The strange paradox in these cruel scenarios is the attitudes of the ruling ANC in South Africa. The ANC which is arrogant and corrupt - certainly very different from the great liberation movement it once was under the evil apartheid regime of South Africa. The ANC shows total ignorance of the dynamics in the Middle East. This could be due to ignorance, naivety or a mixture of both. They have become allies of Iran, Assad's Syria, Hezbollah, and even Hamas. They support the darkest anti-democratic forces in the Middle East. They see them as the liberators of the Palestinians living under Israeli occupation. They lose no opportunity to condemn Israel as being an occupier and an exploiter of the Palestinians. There is deathly silence from Archbishop Desmond Tutu and many other left-wing human rights activists on the killing fields in Syria, Iran and even in Gaza where Hamas oppresses the Palestinians more than Israel ever did. The ANC is very selective in what it sees as human cruelties. After all they shot innocent miners in cold blood because they had a strike in Marikana. Perhaps they learn these cruel tactics from their despotic allies in the Middle East as well as the old white apartheid government. The ANC is no paragon of virtue if we examine their record of conduct in ruling South Africa.

It looks as if the Arab Spring on which many of us had pinned such high hopes is turning into an Arab Winter where the new regimes are becoming more anti-democratic and Sharia Law will be playing an important part in policy making in the future.

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The Hypocrisy of ANC-ruled South Africa towards Israel

Cover of Nelson Mandela

Boycott Israel-poster (Photo credit: Creap)

English: Malema (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The Lonmin Mine disaster that has caused the loss of many lives last month must be viewed as a danger call in South Africa. There are various trade union groups independent of the COSATU (Congress of South African Trade Unions) which is affiliated to the African National Congress. The dissatisfaction is only rising to the surface now and it will only get worse. The strikers were gunned down in a brutal fashion by the ANC-controlled police.

The annoying thing about all this including the tragic loss of life is the hypocrisy of the ANC Government. An issue that concerns many of us is the cruel tactics used to quell protest. The ANC is not the ANC of Nelson Mandela and wonderful people of the calibre of Oliver Tambo, Walter Sisulu, Govan Mbeki and Duma Nokwe as well as a host of other wonderful people who had sacrificed so much in order to achieve the demise of the evil apartheid regime. They had suffered torture in white South African ruled prisons and their determination to achieve justice for their people was unwavering. I am sure that that the deceased ANC fighters for freedom are turning in their graves today if they knew what a disappointment the ANC is today. The ANC MPs have become rich, arrogant, self-righteous and corrupt on the backs of the South African taxpayer. The massacre of strikers of the Lonmin Platinum Mines of Marikana will cause a crack in the ANC power base which is being exploited by the ex-leader of the African National Congress Youth League, Julius Malema – an arrogant, wealthy, charismatic rabble-rouser, who is taking advantage of a tragic situation to score points. He has his own agenda and that is to grab power and to be a threat to the ANC. Both Malema and the ANC have similar allies ranging from the tyrants Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, Bashar el Assad of Syria and Mahmoud Ahmadinajad of Iran not to mention Hezbollah of Sheik Nasrallah and Hamas of Haled Mashal - "great benefactors of human rights issues".

Where are the human rights groups of South Africa? Those who remain silent on the refugee crises in Darfur, the xenophobia of those who attack refugees from Zimbabwe, the brutal slaughter of innocent men, women and children in Syria.

These same hypocritical left wing human rights groups of South Africa are the first to jump the anti-Israel bandwagon, shooting their mouths over Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians. There is a lot of room for criticism on the occupation of Israel in the West Bank. I have made this clear in all my posts on this blog and I have not changed my attitude on that issue. South Africa’s policy of hostility towards Israel's treatment of the Palestinians and support of BDS (boycott,divestment and sanctions) is hollow; reeking of ignorance of the issues involved which are very complex. What the ANC is doing to its own people is far worse. The combating of crime is poor and South Africa has the highest crime rate in the world. Poverty, housing shortages, the collapse of the education system are a failure of the ANC to deliver the goods to its people. Surely South Africans must reach the right conclusions as to the performance of the ANC.

The added problem of Julius Malema with his competing agenda will only exacerbate the situation. We must remember that Malema is homespun from the ANC. He shares the same love of wealth and corruption as the ANC. The ANC by their impotency on vital issues because of severe corruption in their ranks is paving the way for future Malemas whose hero worship of despots of Mugabi’s ilk could be the death knell of democracy in South Africa and and the beginning of black apartheid with disastrous consequences.

The double standard ANC is condemning Israel for its treatment of the Palestinians which is out of all proportion when compared to the way it treats the poor and the mineworkers of South Africa. 

 South Africa is sliding down the abyss of disaster and the ANC is becoming South Africa’s tragedy and another chapter in its bloody history. South Africans of all colours, creeds and religions must heed the wake up call and vote against the ANC at the ballot box before it is too late.

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The Massacres in Syria and Iran

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   The turmoil in the Arab World, starting in Tunisia followed by Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Syria in the strong desire of the people to achieve democracy, justice equality and human rights, has left a big question mark. The aims of achieving these values are inconclusive.

Syria's President Bashar el Assad has proved him a ruthless, murderous dictator and, like Nero of ancient Rome, he fiddles while Damascus, Homs and other Syrian cities burn with rivers of blood flowing in the streets. His ruthless, cruel army stops at nothing, killing innocent people, men, woman and children and torturing suspects. His henchman connects electrodes to the ears, genitals, and fingers of his suspects before torturing them to death. He has murdered close to 10 000 Syrians and the numbers are still rising daily. The world remains uncomfortably silent with Russia and China vetoing all resolutions passed by the UN in trying to stop the violence. Assad needs to be dealt with in the way Libya dealt with Qaddafi.

At the same time this evil beast and his wife, Asma, lead a good lifestyle, shopping in London at Harrods and in Paris as if life goes on as normal in Syria. The Syrian Army is not the Egyptian Army that sided with the demonstrators aiding the downfall of Mubarak. While some Syrian soldiers have deserted to join the Syrian demonstrators, the core of the Syrian Army remains intact.

Syria is receiving Ahmadinajad's support and as Assad succeeds to oppress his people he strengthens Iran's Ayatollah - Ahmadinajad dictatorship.

Ahmadinajad has even advised Assad by declaring that he should shift the blame on Israel's occupation of the Palestinians and push for Israel's destruction. This would lessen the heat on his leadership and serve to unite the Syrian people against Israel.

As Assad reconsolidates his power ruthlessly he also strengthens Ahmadinajad.

Meanwhile Iran is pumping weapons into Gaza rearming Islamist extremist terror groups such as Islamic Jihad firing volleys of missiles into southern Israel. The old mantras of freeing the Palestinians from Israeli occupation and the destruction of "the Zionist entity" is still well entrenched in the minds of the Hamas leadership in Gaza.

The atrocities committed by Syria and Iran towards their own citizens’ make the Israeli occupation a paradise for the Palestinians in comparison. This does not mean that I support the occupation. The contrary is true. However we must place these scenarios in proportion to Israel's treatment of the Palestinians which should never be immune from condemnation.

Iran and Syria are close allies today with Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan sitting on the fence. He has also been making hostile statements against Israel and at the same time sheltering Syrian refugees from the cruel, ruthless Assad regime. Erdogan's role is two faced and his relationship with the Ahmadinajad regime remains unclear.

An attack on Iran's nuclear facilities by Israel probably will not occur despite Netanyahu's saber rattling. The US would not encourage it despite paying lip service to Israel's right to defend itself.

The trend is to view Iran's nuclear programme as an international problem and not Israel's alone despite Israel's proximity to Iran. The Arab world, including the Palestinians, is under threat if Iran develops a nuclear bomb and this could initiate a nuclear race for the bomb in the Middle East which is a threat to its entire people.

Destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities should be a coordinated attack by NATO with the US and Israel providing the intelligence for such a target.

In view of the common danger that all countries of the Middle East, including Israel and the Palestinians, face from a nuclear Iranian bomb, we must set aside our mantras and unite to prevent Iran from dominating the Middle East. The Palestinian leaders must not allow Iran to try to smuggle weapons into Palestine or Gaza. They will simply be porns in their game of Middle East domination. Their quest is to replace the Israeli occupation by the Iranian occupation which will be far worse. Ahmadinajad is no pundit for human rights and nor is his ally, Bashar el Assad. Priorities must be reevaluated as to what is in the interests of all peoples of the Middle East.

The rockets fired into Israel from Gaza have achieved nothing except more deaths and destruction on both sides. Israel’s “Iron Dome” missiles had proved a success in preventing Palestinian terrorist action against Israelis in the south. Iran is using this as a digression in the hope of saving the evil Assad regime in its (Iran’s) desire to dominate the Middle East. This will never be a movement towards an independent Palestinian state - certainly not under the patronage of the evil Ahmadinajad regime and its ally Bashar el Assad. Hamas is in danger of falling into that trap. The result will be more Palestinian suffering as if they are not suffering enough already under Hamas dictatorship.

The fight for a democratic Syria and Iran will be a long, cruel battle as these two evil tyrants are deeply entrenched. Another unknown element is the strength of Islamist extremism in these two countries that could also be an obstacle in achieving human rights, justice and dignity. Iranian domination of Palestine would turn the Palestinian dream of an independent Palestinian state into a nightmare with ruthless killings of those who oppose Iranian domination or occupation.

The Iranian Threat

The Iranian threat is very real. Can one afford to be skeptical about the Iranian threat or even indifferent? Wars begin with threats.

The unrest in the Arab countries has given rise to instability in the Middle East as well as uncertainty. In Tunisia, the moderate Islamist Ennahda Party was elected. It seems to be pragmatic. In Egypt, the situation is more complex and the military still seem to be at the helm despite the elections. The Muslim Brotherhood and its Islamist coalition partners - the Salafis - have majority support. It seems that the revolution in Egypt has not achieved the desired goals of human rights and democracy as intended. People who opposed the corrupt Mubarak regime and were in the forefront of the revolution are under threat.

Libya is in turmoil despite the end of the cruel Qaddafi era with warring militias making Libya ungovernable.

Syria is still being ruled by the cruel dictatorship of Bashar al Assad whose loyal soldiers are massacring thousands of Syrians without mercy. The Syrian opposition to Assad the tyrant is prepared to sacrifice their lives. The Assad regime is getting support from Iran who is also supporting Hamas in Gaza as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon. It is still not known how widespread the Iranian influence is in the occupied West Bank.

Despite the boycott of Iran because of its disregard of UN resolutions to halt its nuclear programs, the evil President Ahmadinajad continues to disregard these resolutions.

The instability in the Middle East seems to create an environment for possible Iranian domination. A paradoxical situation may occur whereby Israel, Palestine and the Arab nations are under the threat of the megalomaniac Ahmadinajad. The common danger to Israel and her neighbors needs reassessment and new alliances must be formed to oppose this threat as effectively as possible.

Ahmadinajad's Iran does not have Palestinian interests at heart. It has formed alliances with the evil Assad regime of Syria and its various proxies such as Hezbollah to dominate the Middle East by suppressing Iranian opposition brutally. The majority of Iranians oppose their brutal leadership and attempts were made two years ago to overthrow the Ahmadinajad regime. The brutal oppression of the Iranian people continues unabated

Ahmadinajad is taking advantage of the instability in the Arab world in order to create a situation of "divide and rule" in the Middle East and is using Syria's evil regime, Hezbollah in Lebanon and probably even Hamas in Gaza. The latter is Sunni and it seems odd that Hamas is accepting Iranian aid in order to destroy Israel.

This further proves that Ahmadinajad continues to provoke tensions and take advantage of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to achieve his goal of domination of the Middle East. It is not in the interests of the Palestinians to kow-tow to Ahmadinajad's whims. He has often stated his desire to annihilate Israel and his nuclear programme is intended for that purpose as well as dominating the Middle East.

One can assume that all the people of the Middle East are under threat of Ahmadinajad's megalomania. Nobody is immune from the common danger to which we are all exposed. Nuclear bombs and the resulting fallout will destroy Israel, Palestine, Lebanon and neighbouring Arab states. Regarding Ahmadinajad as an ally of the Palestinians is naïve and the consequences of annihilation of Israelis and Palestinians is not as remote as many Palestinian pundits hope to believe.

Whether Israel or the US should attack Iran is a contentious issue and there does not seem to be any straight answer apart from "all options remaining on the table".

If a decision is taken to carry out pin-point accurate attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, the safety of the Iranian people must be guaranteed. After all, the evil Ahmadinajad regime was thrust on them by force and electoral fraud.

However one views an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, it is fraught with many risks and could only be achieved by a well coordinated attack on all the nuclear sites at the same time. Surprise is an important element here.

The success of such an operation is dependent on the support of the Arab world, including Israel and the Palestinians.

The danger of Iran with the nuclear bomb capability is obvious. It would be prudent for all the nations of the Middle East to lay down their differences and unite to prevent Ahmadinajad creating a nuclear disaster.

Sanctions against Iranian interests all over the world are important but it is unlikely that it will succeed. There will always be countries such as Russia and China that oppose sanctions. They will remain Ahmadinajad’s supporters.

The Israeli occupation of Palestine must not be used as a distraction in the neutralization of Iran's potential to develop a nuclear device.

There are signs that Hamas is having second thoughts about Ahmadinajad and his ally Bashar el Assad of Syria. The magnitude of the atrocities committed by Syria against its people is horrendous. While not belittling the Israeli occupation, the tyranny of Iran and Syria is not comparable. The attitude of the European Union and for that matter the US is not decisive enough to prevent the blood bath occurring in Syria.

A terrible human tragedy is occurring in Syria and Israel's attitude towards this cannot be one of indifference. The murder of innocent Syrians by the evil Assad regime must be condemned in the strongest possible terms. Both tyrants need to be removed from power and tried at the International Court of Justice in The Hague for atrocities against humanity.

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The Art of Obfuscation

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The Arab world is in the midst of great turmoil because of radical changes. The Arab people, after generations of suffering under megalomanic, cruel dictatorships, have decided to revolt, ushering changes that will create a different Arab world. It remains to be seen the direction that it will go.




The buds of new Arab governments in Tunisia, and Egypt are starting to show after their first democratic elections in generations. There are signs that religious Muslim party coalitions will be taking over post-revolution Tunisia and Egypt in the midst of severe turmoil. The direction of Libya is still unclear. The secularists, who were the initiators of the revolutions, will be forced off the scene. These states are in the midst of confusion and the aims of the "Arab Spring" in the direction of democracy and economic stability seems very confused and unclear. In Syria, the uprising has become violent with President Bashar el Assad's forces massacring hundreds of Syrians daily. The attempt to overthrow the Assad regime is bloody and the opposition is being oppressed ruthlessly.


The newly elected governments have many problems to address. If the Arab electorate in the various countries undergoing radical changes does not succeed in creating economic stability, alleviating severe unemployment and the resulting poverty, very little will be achieved in assuring a successful transition towards democracy, human rights and dignity. The challenges are great and a successful outcome is far from being realized at this stage. There is seething dissatisfaction and the road to orderly change will remain evasive for an indefinite period.


The biggest fear by far for the West is whether the emerging new governments in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya will be pragmatic in its dealings with the non-Moslem world. Many questions remain unanswered. The hope of the non-Moslem world is that pragmatism will take preference over religious extremism, and its severe restraints on the citizens under their rule, will not be an obstacle to peace or a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.


In Israel, the attitudes towards the sweeping changes in the Arab world remain unclear. The present government seems to be obsessed with Iran's nuclear ability and its danger to Israel. There is much hype in the media about how long it will take Iran to develop its nuclear ability to threaten Israel. There is debate on whether Israel should attack Iran's nuclear facilities with or without US support. This could be a side issue to take the pressure off Israel in negotiating a peace treaty with the Palestinians. While the Iranian nuclear threat is being debated, Israel continues to build illegal settlements in the occupied territories.


Salaam Fayyad, the PM of the Palestinians, has stated that President Ahmadinajad of Iran is damaging the Palestinian cause by his bluster and rhetoric. He knows that the Iranian nuclear threat is no less dangerous for the Palestinians as it is for Israel. Apart from that Ahmadinajad's vision is clear - domination of the Middle East with Shiite Islam ruling over the Sunnis who are the majority. There is no democracy in Iran and Syria (a cruel massacre is going on there against Syrian protesters of the cruel Assad regime), Iran's close ally.


Israel is keeping a low profile in its attitude towards the sweeping changes taking place in the Arab world. It is consolidating its control over Palestinian lands and building illegal settlements to make the two-state solution to the conflict unattainable. PM Netanyahu speaks about supporting a two-state solution while his right wing coalition is doing everything to torpedo it. The art of Netanyahu Government obfuscation has reached new heights. Netanyahu talks about peace and a two-state solution and blames the Palestinian side for the deadlock.


Obfuscation is not only in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict but also in the way problems in the Israeli workplace are handled. Procrastination and ignoring genuine grievances and injustices is an art well-developed in Israel. While obfuscation in the Arab world is a result of uncertainties because of dramatic changes, in Israel it is directed at its citizens where intentional obfuscation is the name of the game. The purpose - industrial quiet accompanied by crude capitalist greed.


When one does not agree with the right wing coalition who is insensitive to citizen's grievances, the dissatisfaction remains simmering under the surface without any solution being found. Organized strikes are less effective today than in the past.


Inefficient people in senior positions in government departments who have a history of abusing employees and slandering them seem to be immune from being dismissed. This is common practice. It is hardly surprising when the "only democracy in the Middle East" is a democracy for cartels in high places. The government departments are filled with inefficient bureaucratic technocrats whose sensitivity for the treatment of employees in various sectors is almost non-existent. In Israel there is no legal address for employees who have suffered verbal abuse, slander and libel unless it is a newspaper scoop. Good manners are not a well known quality amongst many Israelis who have authority whether it is employer – employee relations or behaviour towards Palestinians when it comes to negotiations. The arrogance seems to seep through. Obfuscation is an art well honed.

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