The Pullout

The future pullout is a two-edged sword pointing at the underbelly of Israel. Whatever happens, there does not seem to be any indication that the firing of Qassam rockets will cease irrespective of disengagement or not.

Abu Mazen does not seem to be able to have the ability to reign in the extremists. He has postponed the Palestinian elections because he knows that his Fatah Party is losing support in favor of Hamas whose uncompromising attitude towards Israel's existence is well known.

One cannot underestimate the importance of Hamas as key players in the future of the success or failure of disengagement. While the logic of transferring the settlers from Gush Katif and the Gaza Strip to within the green line is sound as they are a source of friction with the Palestinians because of their close proximity. Whether the Palestinians, according to Ayalon will perceive Israel's withdrawal from Gaza as an act of choice or flight is irrelevant. What is important is whether there will be escalation of terror after the disengagement.

If there is no further momentum towards withdrawal from the occupied territories after disengagement, the chances of terror will increase. The firing of Qassam rockets into Ashkelon is a strong possibility. If this scenario occurs, the Israel Security forces will return to Gaza very soon.

However, if there is a chance of peace and the cease-fire maintained, Israel should return territory and help the Palestinians economically so that they can receive a viable state.