The Inconclusive Israeli Election Results

The 17th September 2019 elections have achieved a deadlock. PM Netanyahu is on the way out.  According to nearly final Israeli election results, the opposition Blue and White party of Benny Gantz edged ahead of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party 1. However, Benny Ganz may not be on the way in. Neither the Likud nor Kahol Lavan parties with their possible coalitions will make it to the minimum of 61 seats out of 120 Knesset seats. 

 Israeli President Reuven Rivlin tasks Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with forming a new government, during a press conference in Jerusalem on September 25, 2019. MENAHEM KAHANA/AFP/Getty Images

It appears that it will take weeks of intensive negotiations between the factions to form a viable coalition which is very complex and Netanyahu, with his legal problems, may have to be replaced if Ganz does not succeed in forming a coalition that will have 61 or more seats. Somebody else from the Likud may replace Netanyahu, who will not resign without a fight. Netanyahu proposed leading “a broad unity government” that would include Likud in alliance with the Kahol-Lavan  alliance, which won the most Knesset seats in the vote and is led by former army chief Benny Ganz 2. He will have to be dragged alive, kicking and screaming with his waning magic racist mantras and balls of rolling sweat pouring down from his brow. Much depends on his Likud cronies, who appear to be giving Netanyahu overwhelming support and to date are not prepared to desert him for a new leader or even pass a resolution to have the Likud primaries voting to replace Netanyahu.

President Reuven Rivlin faces one of the most, if not the most difficult challenge in Israel’s history to try and get the winning party to form a coalition with so many recalcitrant Knesset members, all pulling in different directions with different demands. The main question is whether Benny Ganz will go back on his electoral promise not to sit down and negotiate a unity government with Benjamin Netanyahu rotating the prime ministerial post with him, even if President Rivlin may request him to do so. Electoral promises and post-electoral decisions during negotiations may even be contradictory. Promises made during election campaigns may not be kept once the negotiations for forming a coalition government begin.

The formation of a government coalition, whichever way one views it, is a gargantuan task and the possibility of total failure is very large. The possibility of a third round of general elections cannot be ruled out if no government can be formed. If this occurs, it will cost Israel millions of shekels and the results will remain pretty much the same.

Perhaps it would be a good idea to form a unity government for one purpose only and that is to pass a law changing the electoral system to ensure that there is a change in the delimitation of parties by raising the percentage support they get or to change the system into a a system similar to the UK that has a constituency representation. The House of Commons and local councils in England and Wales use the first-past-the-post system.

The UK is divided into constituencies. Local authorities into wards.

At a general or local election, voters put a cross (X) next to their preferred candidate on a ballot paper. Ballot papers are counted. The candidate with the most votes represents the constituency or ward.

The voting system of proportional representation as at present in Israel will not allow any party to gain an absolute majority to win an election because of the diverse voting patterns of the electorate and a large number of parties participating. Hence many weeks if not months will be wasted in trying to form a government coalition. This exercise may be a test of total futility and the possibility of new futile general elections cannot be ruled out. 

After much ado in the president’s residence, it was decided that Netanyahu get first shot at forming a government 5. His chances of succeeding are poor and he has a week to do so. Balad (part of the Joint List) decided to abstain from supporting Netanyahu or Ganz. This gave the right-wing block the majority which influences President Rivlin’s decision to give Netanyahu first choice. Balad’s expected 3 votes in favour of Ganz were withdrawn at their request. 

After having been given a meaningless, futile mandate by President Rivlin to form a government, Netanyahu thanks the president for the mandate and gives an election propaganda speech about the importance of him forming a government and continuing as PM. He was campaigning for himself and his right-wing cronies to continue leading the country. The bottom line is obvious as well - getting immunity from a criminal trial pending his hearing in a week.

There are reports on Y Net that Kahol-Lavan requested Balad to abstain from voting so that Netanyahu is given the first option to form a government so that that he will fail and that Kahol-Lavan will be given second option to form a government assuming that their chance of succeeding is greater. Both groups, even with their respective supporters, are unable to win an absolute majority of 61 seats. There is a definite electoral stalemate. 

At the end of the day, within a few months, there will be new elections. If there is no electoral reform or a change in the electoral system, there will be no change in the results and Israel will face inconclusive election results after repeat expensive elections that maybe Israel’s destiny. 

References:

1.  20 Sep. 2019, https://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/israel/2019/september/benny-gantzs-blue-and-white-party-ahead-of-netanyahus-likud-as-final-votes-are-tallied. Accessed 22 Sep. 2019.
2.  21 Sep. 2019, https://thearabweekly.com/netanyahu-seeks-stay-power-despite-likuds-failure-win-parliamentary-election. Accessed 22 Sep. 2019.
3. September 2019 Israeli legislative election
4. Israeli Democracy Institute - September 2019 Elections
5. After election deadlock, Netanyahu tapped by Israel's president to assemble a new government

The Upcoming Israeli Election Winds

The upcoming elections 1 in Israel are a boring, predictable phenomenon. The majority of Israel’s Jewish Electorate are moving towards the right. The Benny Gantz 2 phenomenon is a distraction that PM “Bibi” Netanyahu does not like. He is determined to label him as “left” and a danger to Israel. Miri Regev, Commissar of Culture, is Bibi’s echo. This boorish, loud-mouthed, woman reiterates all Bibi’s prejudices and lies with gusto. She is also a racist that received a high place on the Likud list for the Knesset. She follows the Stalinist belief that if you tell a lie often enough it becomes the truth. Any cultural project that does not meet her approval does not get subsidized by the state.

The Ministry of Culture and Sport appears to be Miri Regev’s private property. She travels around campaigning in her mobile caravan expressing her pet hates for the “leftists” and those, who she views as haters of Israel, which includes in her view, Benny Gantz and others. This, of course, brings her lots of votes from the ignorant racists that are the grassroots of the Likud Party. After the “silent” Benny Gantz gave his speech, the polls 3 in favour of his new party, Hosen L’ Yisrael, soared but still remains 8 seats below the Likud Party. There is no chance of this party winning the elections as the situation remains at present.

Netanyahu is great at rabble-rousing the crowd with inaccuracies and punch lines that bring his party great numbers of votes. He labels his opponents as left to the extreme left even if this is not true. He is doing this with newbie Benny Gantz, who seems to pose a threat. If King Bibi says that Gantz is going to sell out Israel and has President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority’s apparent approval. This will be Bibi’s tactic aimed at the ignorant masses to believe him and will come to the polls “in droves” to vote for the Likud and its shenanigans. “If King Bibi says then King Bibi knows and we must not question his credibility”. Those who do are viewed as potential traitors to Israel and must be treated with contempt.  The result is that the ignorant, apathetic voters will rally round to support the Likud and Company at the end of the day despite what the polls say. Bibi’s magic is his talent at misleading the voter with untruthful slogans that are racist and appeal to the Islamophobic mindset of the ignorant of which there is no shortage. We saw this after the 2015 General Elections when King Bibi stated that ”the Arabs are coming in droves to vote”. The effect was like magic and the sheep came out of the fold to vote en masse after flooding the parks with barbecue grills of shishlik, kebabs and steaks on Election Day (which is a public holiday). “God Forbid! The Arabs are a threat” was their winning slogan.

There is no reason to believe that the upcoming elections will be any different. The Likud just had their primaries for their Knesset list. Many of the same poor quality of Homo sapiens, whose fear tactics are so obvious, was re-elected and received much support. It is enough to view the Likud members in their masses voting for these rabble-rousing racists, who were responsible for the passing of the racist Nation-State Law in the Knesset.

Netanyahu has a legal headache waiting for him - depending of course on the indictment prior to a hearing of Bibi’s suspected illegal corruption follies in Case 1000, 2000 and 4000 that Attorney-General Mandelblit intends to issue before the elections.  He, of course, is innocent as newly driven snow. He is sweating and floundering around like a paranoic, cornered rat subject to a witch-hunt. He is on the path of destroying Israel’s democracy, making friends with strange, right-wing despotic leaders in Brazil, Hungary, Chad, Poland, Italy and Philippines - maybe I have left out other friendly despots in the world - no shortage of those these days. Of course, President Trump is also on that list of devoted friends. Netanyahu blames the left, the police, the courts, the media and the attorney-general for his legal problems.

The upcoming elections, with all the blurb going around and polls on an almost daily basis all pointing to another victory for the Likud with the scum-like behaviour of its cabinet ministers and its MKs, many of whom have been re-elected on the Likud list after the recent primaries. This is far from Israel of its founding fathers and the Declaration of Independence being eroded by the racist Nation-State Law 4 to ensure Israel’s apartheid-like character with the non-Jewish Israeli citizen as second class.

If the Likud forms the next Coalition Government after the elections, and Netanyahu, despite his indictment becomes prime minister once again, new bills will be discussed resembling the French Parliamentary Immunity Law that will make it impossible to summon Netanyahu to court on the grounds of suspicion of him breaking the law and allowing him to mark time without him being accountable for his suspected illegal activities while he remains in office.

If this scenario does occur after the elections it will erode Israel’s battered democracy even further. The chances of a right-wing Likud Coalition after the elections is very high.

References:

1. "2019 Israeli legislative election - Wikipedia." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Israeli_legislative_election. Accessed 7 Feb. 2019.
2. "Benny Gantz - Wikipedia." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benny_Gantz. Accessed 7 Feb. 2019.
3. "Israel Election 2019-Haaretz.com." https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections. Accessed 7 Feb. 2019.
4. "Final text of Jewish nation-state law, approved by ... - The Times of Israel." 19 Jul. 2018, https://www.timesofisrael.com/final-text-of-jewish-nation-state-bill-set-to-become-law/. Accessed 7 Feb. 2019.