To Attack or Not to Attack Iran – that is the Question

Once again the Bush Administration is at the threshold of decision making. A number of issues are pre-occupying the minds of the US leadership. Sometime in the fall, there will be the Annapolis Peace Summit with its hopes of success not being very high. A final date has not been reached as the parties are unable to come out with a declaration of principles because of problems with opposition in their own ranks. The Palestinian leadership has strong opposition from Hamas and the Israelis have opposition from their own right wing coalition partners who have threatened to bolt the coalition if agreements are reached with the Palestinians at Annapolis.

The emphasis once again has shifted towards Iran’s nuclear activity. According to a report on the Voice of America News, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammed ElBaradei said on Sunday 28^th October 2007, there was no evidence that Iran was trying to make nuclear bombs and that the country was still years away from having that capability. But the United States and other western countries, such as France, suspect Iran has a weapons program. Iran continues to deny the charge, saying its nuclear program is for energy. Nevertheless, with a certain amount of skepticism, the US is not ruling out military action to get Iran to cease its nuclear activities.

While President Mahmoud Ahmadinajad of Iran is not a very savoury character and his statements are full of bluster, it is not wise to engage in a military operation against Iran. Sanctions and economic boycotts of Iran should be increased to push Iran into economic bankruptcy with the hope that the Iranian people will overthrow the present Iranian leadership. As it is, the US has the gift of creating havoc in countries that do not abide by its will. If the US attacks Iran, even those members of the Iranian opposition will turn against the US resulting in a call to the blood by the notorious Iranian leadership that would create increased support for Ahmadinajad and his ilk.

Opposition to an evil regime and its overthrow can only be instigated by the people who are dissatisfied with the regime that rules them. Outside powers will not succeed in overthrowing an evil regime.

If we examine what had happened in oppressive communist regimes in Eastern Europe, the people overthrew their leaders. The Romanian people overthrew Nicolai Ceausescu, the communist tyrant, and created a democratic regime. All the communist bloc countries fell, not because of the US but because this was the will of the people who were oppressed and the economy was failing. However, when an outside power - the US overthrew dictatorships, the results were anarchy and terror by extremist nationalist groups vying for power. Typical examples of US failure are in Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam. The chances of the US withdrawing its military from Iraq and Afghanistan in the near future are close to zero. The US has failed in these two countries. Bush continues with his paranoia over terror which is achieving nothing to solve the crises in these two countries. This scenario could easily be repeated in Iran. This would also result in oil prices reaching heights that would be prohibitive. The world still has no alternative to oil for energy.

It is up to the Iranian people to get rid of their dictator and not the US or any other power for that matter. The world can only stand on the side lines and ensure that Iran is isolated and that its economy would crash because of boycotts and sanctions. This could enable the Iranian people to revolt and rid themselves of the evil Ahmadinajad regime already weakened by severe sanctions and boycotts. This would be more effective than using an external military option, the results of which could be catastrophic on a world basis. This would also create a refugee problem of great proportions. The US had also created a massive Iraqi refugee problem as a result of its activities there and a severe humanitarian crisis.

Iran is concerned with creating a situation on the ground in the Middle East whereby it supports extremists like Hamas financially and militarily. The goal of Iran is similar to the goal of Hamas. This goal is the destruction of Israel. Ahmadinajad and Hamas have made this clear on numerous occasions. However the Palestinians fail to realize that if Iran achieves nuclear weapon capability, they are under threat of total destruction no less than Israel. It is in the interests of the Palestinians no less than Israel, that nuclear weapon capability of Iran is never realized. Iran is interested in establishing a Shiite-style caliphate in the Middle East by trying to exploit the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict to achieve that end. It will be an interesting mental exercise to try and predict how a Sunni extremist group like Hamas would accept this in the future.

Despite the evil of the present Iranian regime under Ahmadinajad and his ilk, a military operation by the US against that regime would be a total disaster and would not contribute anything to solving the various crises in the Middle East. It would contribute to further scorn on the US and it would add another failed campaign to the increasing lexicon of US-failed campaigns and the humanitarian crises caused.