The Aftermath of the 2006 Israeli Elections

The Elections have come and gone amidst much speculation that the Israeli Electorate would elect the Kadima Party with an overwhelming majority. This did not occur. The polls were inaccurate and did not predict such large support for the Pensioner’s Party, which received seven mandates. This surprised everybody, not least the candidates themselves. An overwhelming majority in Israel is NOT an absolute majority and as I had written last week, the results were predictable and great reliance will be on the coalition partners who will determine the nature of the new government under P.M. Ehud Olmert.

The wheeling and dealing has already begun. It looks as if the balance of power remains in the hands of the Labour leader, Amir Peretz. There will be compromises on election promises towards a more humane social policy that takes into account the necessities of the weaker sections of Israeli society. It remains to be seen what coalition will arise from the aftermath of the elections.

What is disturbing is that Kadima will invite potential partners whose programmes are diametrically opposed to it. Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu Party is a case in point. This party received support from many right-wingers who were disappointed with the Likud’s performance in the previous government. There is even talk of the Likud and Labour forming some kind of a block to prevent Kadima from forming the new government. I hope that this is a rumor. It is almost certain that this is NOT what the electorate wants. If this does occur, it would prove that the electorate desires are not taken into account and further reinforces the fact that voting in Israel is an exercise in futility and frustration.

There are positive signs after the elections. The Likud received its just reward for its handling of the weaker sections of Israel’s society. It had many Knesset members under criminal investigation for bribery and corruption. Much of the Likud policies were determined by a loutish central committee who were determined to direct all policies for their own personal gain and that of their connections. Nepotism was the name of the game. Israel was crying for clean government. The Likud has been sent to the sidelines of Israeli politics with a poor showing of twelve mandates. Many parties such as Shas, Labour and Pensioners have gained strength on a social programme ticket. This area was neglected in the past, especially when Bibi Netanyahu was Finance Minister. He had made budget cuts that affected the poor adversely. Employees in the public service had extra cuts in salary by having to pay increased taxes to bail out Israel’s economic problems. The wealthy were hardly affected.

The Israeli Electorate was confused and this was illustrated by the outcome of the elections. The extreme right wing has no way of forming a block to prevent Olmert from forming a new government. The National Union-National Religious Party, despite their union, did not receive the support that they expected. An unfortunate outcome is the increased strength of the right wing Yisrael Beiteinu Party. This could be a problem for Kadima who is showing signs of courting that party. This would be an obstacle for further withdrawals under the new government. The left wing was also not clear-cut. Meretz had a poor showing. They received five mandates. It remains to be seen whether they will be included in the new government.

The importance of the potential partners for the formation of a viable coalition remains just as true today as in the past. Kadima is a centre party that could be pulled in any direction because of the nature of its coalition partners. It is hoped that there will not be too many compromises of opposites in order to get a coalition at all costs. Most of the Israeli electorate had censured the right wing settler movement parties, which are an obstacle for peace with the Palestinians.

The future direction is clear despite the traditionally confused electoral results. To an extent, it also illustrates the immaturity of the Israeli electorate in its handling of the democratic processes in the country. It ranges from lukewarm apathy to frustration with the behaviour of the previous loutish Likud Government. They knew that they had to remove the Likud from power but had no idea what party to support overwhelmingly instead.

Perhaps the message that one can discern from the haphazard voting patterns is a desire to move in a direction of improving social conditions and disengagement from the Palestinians. The nature of disengagement from the Palestinians is unclear as Hamas is not ready to negotiate with Israel at this stage.

A "Guide" For The Perplexed Israeli Electorate

The clock is ticking towards countdown when Israeli citizens go to the polls to elect a new government. Why is this election different from all other elections? This could be the first question for the upcoming Passover (Pesach) Festival, which will occur two weeks after the election results are well known. Two major points characterize these elections:

1. There is indifference and apathy that will result in a low voter turnout on Election Day.


2. Traditional party loyalties are shifting resulting in predictable results as illustrated by the polls.

There will be a tremendous floating vote, the significance of which is unpredictable, even though the result is clear-cut. It could affect the nature of the coalition that the winning party will form in order to form a stable government.

Never in the history of the State of Israel have there been so many changes in party loyalties. Major players in both the Likud and Labor parties have changed party loyalties. Two factors are responsible for that:

1. The unilateral disengagement from Gaza and the re-allocation of the Gaza Strip settlers to other areas caused a break in the Likud between those for and against the disengagement. The Likud mainstream ostracized PM Ariel Sharon for this and his position in the party became untenable. He broke away forming the Kadima party taking with him many Likud members who supported the disengagement.


2. The election of Amir Peretz as Labor Party leader also caused a schism in its ranks when Shimon Peres, the veteran Labor Party leader, bolted the party for Ariel Sharon’s Kadima Party. Other veteran members such as Haim Ramon and Dalia Itzik followed suit. They were not prepared to accept Amir Peretz as leader of the Labour Party. Their resignation was personal rather than ideological.

These factors sent shock waves throughout the Israeli political spectrum. This is the first time that a newly formed party composed mostly of ex Likud and Labour members have excellent chances of gaining the most seats contrary to previous mushroom parties in the past such as Dash, Third Way, Central Party and now Shinui which disappeared and will disappear into oblivion after the elections.

The issues that Israel faces are very serious indeed. It is not the purpose of this article to deal with these issues, which would involve the writing of a number of articles on each issue. The new government will have to address many issues such as peace with the Palestinians, the growing crime rate that includes organized crime, petty crime, juvenile crime, Knesset Member corruption and many others. Many of these problems had increased in their seriousness during the last Knesset. The quality of many Knesset Members had reached a new low during the 16th Knesset.

Corruption amongst some Knesset Members resulting in the conviction of two members, Omri Sharon and Noami Blumenthal and the waiting list of investigation of members such as Tzachi Hanegbi, Shlomo BenIzri and a host of others. Many of these police investigations will result in convictions.

A reason for the low voter interest is that many Israelis have lost faith in politicians and see them as corrupt individuals interested in their own interests by gaining power and cheating those who vote for them. They do not wish to exercise their basic voting right for that reason.

This is unfortunate and erodes democracy. It also shows up the weakness in Israel’s democracy, which allows for so many party lists in a clumsy proportional representation system. No party stands a chance of gaining an absolute majority under this system. As usual, there will be wheeling and dealing by the party list that gains the most seats to form a ruling, stable coalition after the elections. The result of the coalition deals will be a number of flexible compromises on ideology and promises that will leave many citizens dissatisfied as has been the case in the past. The election results after this upcoming Election Day will be no different. This creates a feeling of futility and frustration leaving an unanswered question in the minds of many of the relevance of bothering to vote.

Despite the obvious drawbacks of the Israeli electoral system, this is all that we have in order to have some influence on the nature of government we would like to see. People should be encouraged to exercise their basic right to vote. Criteria for government in many ways are personal. We can only fight corruption by choosing the parties that are untainted by the corruption brush at the ballot box.

Peace with the Palestinians is an important issue. Many view Kadima as the party that will win the elections. The coalition that it will form depends on voting patterns of the electorate. The ideology of Kadima is centre. This means that it will move to the left or right depending on its coalition partners. If there is a right wing coalition, chances of revival of a peace process between Israel and the Palestinians, moribund as it is today, will be even more remote. There will be no future withdrawals and the occupation will continue as well as increased defense spending to maintain it not to mention the loss of lives of our soldiers in defending settler outposts. If Labour and Meretz form the dominant, coalition parties with Kadima then the chances of peace with the Palestinians and the Arab world has a better chance of fruition. The government would be more progressive in its attitude towards social issues and civil rights for all Israel’s citizens, irrespective of their religion and creed. The extreme right wing parties are showing signs of disturbing racism towards Israel’s Arab citizens.

A government pandering to the whims of the establishment religious parties and the right wing settler movements will ruin Israel’s standing in the world as well as her credibility. It is incumbent on all citizens to exercise their vote on Election Day in order to influence the direction of Israel in the future. It should also be a vote for clean government and respect for the laws and values that we hold.  

Israeli Election Considerations

The upcoming Israeli Elections have left many of the Israeli Electorate in a state of flux with the opinion polls illustrating a strong showing for centre Kadima Party of Ehud Olmert. Many of us on the left of centre are undecided. In the past, the left in Israel had been associated with the peace process and their voting patterns had illustrated this. Now, the intifada that began in 2000 and resulted in Palestinian violence against innocent Israelis whether it is suicide bombings in public places or in buses had eroded the left. It is as if Palestinian terrorists had punched the left in the stomach leading to the cessation of the peace process.

Despite all this, the voters will be choosing a centre party that promises further disengagement from the Palestinians. The settlers, identified with the right wing, have not managed to garner much sympathy from mainstream Israelis. On the one hand, many view them as obstacles to peace and share much of the blame for Palestinian animosity for Israel. On the other hand, had there been no settlers in areas occupied after the Six Day War of June  1967, it is doubtful if it would have made any difference anyway. The Arab States have a problem with Israel’s existence since its establishment in 1948.

However, this does not alter the fact that we have to come to terms with our Palestinian neighbours eventually. There are many converging interests between Israelis and Palestinians. If it is not on the political level, then it is on the social level. An example of this is the avian ‘flu epidemic that has reached our shores. The Palestinians are just as exposed to this danger as the Israelis. Cooperation between the two sides is vital in order to fight the common enemy that is a threat to the health of poultry on both sides. Cooperation between the two sides becomes more complicated because of the animosity and lack of trust and this would be detrimental to combating this epidemic more effectively.

The floating voter has become a more characteristic phenomenon in these elections. This may not influence the outcome that seems to be predictable. It does influence the kind of coalition that would result after the elections. No political party will gain an absolute majority. Kadima will be zigzagging from moderate left to moderate right depending on the reactions of the mainstream electorate, which is not immune from fickleness.

There are disturbing trends. Racism has raised its ugly head in sheep’s clothing. Whenever there is mention of Amir Peretz, many mainstream Laborites lift up their noses in disgust. Some will follow Shimon Peres to support Kadima in order to demonstrate their disgust. They will say that he is not suited to be the future prime minister of Israel, as he has no experience in government. He has never been a cabinet minister. The real reason is that he is a mustached Moroccan from Sderot and this does not fit in with the stereotype of prime minister that Labor technocrats would like – Ashkenazi and conventionally educated - whatever that means! It is a shame that there are still people with these racist ideas.

Kadima is a centre party with a rather nebulous ideology that waxes and wanes with its supporters. It will form a coalition in order to govern. It is important that its future partners in the coalition will give it the direction needed to make bold decisions. A vote for Kadima does not necessarily mean a vote for an end to the occupation. It could be – depending on the coalition partners. If the right wing Likud and extreme right wing National Union – National Religious Party (Ichud Leumi-Mafdal) form a coalition with Kadima then Kadima will be part of a rightwing government. The Shas and UnitedTorah Judaism Parties would be more conducive to tag on to this coalition than to a Kadima-Labor and Meretz coalition. This would be detrimental to any future peace moves in the region. The latter type of coalition would be more conducive to peace with the Palestinians once Hamas becomes more pragmatic in its stance towards Israel. Rather than abstaining from voting, perhaps it would be a good idea to vote for Labor or Meretz in order to steer Kadima towards much needed reforms in this country.

The Israeli citizen would be better off under a Kadima-Labor-Meretz coalition for a number of reasons:

1. Peace with the Palestinians and the establishment of a Palestinian State alongside Israel would be closer to fruition.


2. Social issues, health, and education would receive more emphasis.


3. Equality between Israeli and Arab Israeli citizens would take priority. Affirmative action programmes preventing discrimination of Arabs in the job market could assist this.


4. The minimum wage would be raised to $1000 a month net.


5. On the religious front, much remains to be done. Recognition of pluralism in Judaism such as the right of non-Orthodox streams to marry couples. There should not be Orthodox establishment monopoly on matters affecting Reform and Conservative Judaism.

A right wing government would place emphasis on the taxpayer’s money for benefits of the settlers beyond the Green line and for continuing the occupation. There would be no withdrawal and the burden on the taxpayer would not be alleviated. An increase in the defense budget in order to protect these settlers and justify them living in occupied areas is a strong possibility.

Those who suffered from Benjamin Netanyahu’s financial programmes when he was Minister of Finance in the Likud Government were the weaker sectors of society. The pensioners, low-income groups and unemployed were victims who paid a heavy price. The Support and Growth Tax that many of us paid into the government coffers apart from our regular tax was unaccounted.

Corruption was rife in the previous Likud Government. So many Knesset members are being subjected to various enquiries into their wheeling and dealing that was criminal. Two Likud Knesset members (Naomi Blumenthal and Omri Sharon) have already been convicted and sentenced to prison terms as well as heavy fines. The citizen in the end pays the final price for corruption in government.

If anything, the Likud and its extreme right wing allies are not deserving of returning to power.

The Israeli Elections of 2006

There are thirty-one parties  taking part in the Israeli General Elections for the 17th Knesset. The axiom that the Israel People can never come to any form of consensus amongst themselves as to the direction that the country must move still holds true to this day. This had been a major problem since Israel’s establishment. No winning party list could ever form a ruling government without the addition of smaller parties to form a ruling coalition. This was responsible for the legal problems that the country has when it comes to forming a viable government. This also results in instability of rule as parties of opposing viewpoints and ideologies found themselves in a limping, ruling coalition.

This time round, while there is a certain déjà vu in the situation prior to the elections, there are changes in party loyalties, which have become dramatic. Many old time party leaders have changed loyalties because of personal gripes with their respective elected party leaders. The Labor Party is a case in point. Shimon Peires, the veteran Labour leader, was dissatisfied with the election of Amir Peretz to the leadership decided to bolt the party and move to Kadima – the centrist party, and took with him a few key members such as Chaim Ramon and Dalia Itzik. The blow to the Labor Party is uncertain. The results of the elections will be the deciding point as to how much Labor will gain or lose. The Likud Party felt this more as many senior members also left to the Kadima Party because of the split between those for and against the Gaza disengagement.

The three main contenders, Likud, Kadima and Labor will be the main issue however, it is almost certain that none will win an absolute majority to form the next government. This election will be different from all the previous elections in that party loyalties in all directions have changed. The Kadima Party according to the polls stands the best chance of winning. This will be the first time in Israel’s history that a new party has excellent chances of winning. In the past, new mushroom parties sprang up, received many votes and became nonentities barely lasting out their terms in office. The central Dash Party under Prof Yigal Yadin of 1977, The Third Way of Avigdor Kayalani of the 1990s, the Centre Party of Yitschak Mordechai of 1999, and the Shinui Party of Tommy Lapid of 2002 disappeared from the political spectrum into irrelevance. This will not happen to Kadima that has broken the bounds of traditional party loyalties and is fielding strong candidates - well-known political hacks of the past government under PM Ariel Sharon.

The usual plethora of small parties of questionable positive significance is also on the periphery of these elections. These range from the ultra-Orthodox non-Zionist narrow issue parties, Arab Parties whose interests are those of Israeli Arabs only and the right wing settlement supporting parties. Out of these small parties, the left Meretz-Yahad has a national manifesto that is all-embracing and is reasonable. This party has remained true to its ideology as illustrated by the quality of its candidates who are experienced parliamentarians. The Likud and Kadima Parties have been tainted with corruption. Any party that has a corrupt record is not worthy of re-election. Some candidates in these parties are on the verge of being summoned for enquiries for their suspected illegal activities. This is the first stage before the Attorney General, Mani Mazuz, draws up charge sheets against them.

The Israeli Electorate should take a number of factors into consideration before casting their votes, which will be mentioned later.

It is unfortunate that the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians will take a back burner position in these elections. Hamas’s electoral victory does not open the door for meaningful negotiations to a final, just settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. Hamas and Fatah are negotiating to form a coalition, which does not seem to get off the ground. It is doubtful if it will. The problem between Israel and the Palestinians will remain existential for an indefinite period until Hamas becomes more pragmatic, recognizes Israel’s right to exist, and disarms its groups of vigilante, terrorist militias. There is a form of consensus on this issue between the main parties. Their differences are approach once Hamas gets their act right on peace with Israel.

The electorate will have to decide whether clean government takes priority. Israelis are taxed heavily. The tax burden is one of the heaviest in the world and the returns for the average citizen are poor in comparison to what they pay. Can we sit back and allow the government to squander our money on personal pleasures, conveniences and travels?

Another factor is the future of various social issues. The Likud Government had adopted draconian financial cuts when Bibi Netanyahu was Minister of Finance. Employees in the public service were forced to pay an extra tax – support and growth tax - for which there was no accountability. The poorer sectors, such as pensioners and those who live in poverty were the hardest hit. The pension able age for men was raised to 67 years and for women 63 years from 65years and 60 years respectively. Does the Likud deserve support with Bibi Netanyahu at the helm? All those who are members of Kadima were also partners to these draconian cuts. The memories of the Israeli Electorate are short and there is no doubt that they will vote for a government most hostile to their social needs as in the past. They will then moan until the next elections scheduled in 2010. It has been the case for most governments since Israel’s establishment.

The issues in these elections should be

1. Promise of clean government


2. The educational standards that have eroded under the Likud ought to be improved.


3. Social services and improvement of minimal salaries to encourage employment should be given top priority.


4. Movement towards an end to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict should be an important goal.


5. Economic stability and growth as well as encouraging oversea investment in Israeli industries are important as well.

      

South Africa Invites Hamas

It is a very sad day for those who are against terrorism in all its forms. Many of us, former South African Jews, who have fought and condemned apartheid, are shocked at the invitation that the South African Government has extended to Hamas – the Islamist, racist, terrorist organization . The new South Africa, built on noble principles such as condemnation of racism in all its forms and the promise of equality for all, is not living up to its principles by this gesture. However, this invitation is tarnishing the anti-racist image of South Africa.

During the period of the Palestinian uprising (intifada) that started in September 2000, innocent Israelis had been subjected to the most ruthless forms of Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorism that Israel had ever witnessed. Countless lives on both sides, Israeli and Palestinian, were lost because of indiscriminate suicide bombings in busses, public shopping malls and in the streets.

Hamas had won the Palestinian Elections as they portrayed themselves as an incorruptible political organization untainted by the corruption of the Palestinian Authority ruled by Fatah under Mahmoud Abbas. This seems to give them the legitimacy that they sought in the world. This legitimacy is snowballing and South Africa has now joined other countries such as Turkey, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria in honoring them with a state invitation. The message to Hamas by this invitation is a message that genocidal terrorism pays.

The invitation to Hamas to South Africa is a slap in the face of the Jewish Community living there. It is also a slap in the face for democracy. Time will prove that Hamas is not a democratic organization. Its main purpose is to turn Palestine into a radical Islamic State with zero tolerance for non-Moslems who will become dhimmis or second class citizens at best. It used the tools of democracy to gain power in Palestine in the same way that the Nazi Party of Germany in the 1930s gained power.

Hamas is a neo-Nazi movement who deserves to be isolated by all democratic freedom-loving countries in the world. The Hamas Covenant has made it clear that its intention is to destroy the Jewish People and the destruction of Israel.

If South Africa had made the invitation conditional by stating that they would invite Hamas if they recognized Israel’s right to exist and cease their terror against Israel’s citizens then there would be no objection to this invitation. Perhaps the South African Government is pandering to the whims of some members of the South African Moslem Community who are showing signs of increasing hate for the Jewish People in South Africa.

Allowing Hamas the legitimacy that it does not deserve in the world is only going to grant them increasing credence in their hate for Israel and the Jewish People.

Hamas - The Palestinian Nazi Movement

It is now just over a month since Hamas won the Palestinian democratic elections. There is still no sign that Hamas is going to change its attitude towards Israel. Perhaps this would be a good time to examine what Hamas intends to do in the future.” Pragmatism” is not one of the pillars of Hamas policy. If it were, it would have changed its manifesto and recognized Israel’s right to exist and at the same time lay down its arms. Negotiations with Israel would be a natural desire if peace with Israel were on the Hamas agenda. This would be a positive sign that Hamas is preparing to lead the Palestinian people towards responsible statehood and away from terror attacks against Israeli citizens of all creeds. Unfortunately, what has happened is far from “Hamas pragmatism”. The idea of giving Hamas a chance to show its pragmatism is dreaming with no basis at all. Hamas is steeped in extremist Islamic doctrine which will not compromise in having a non-Muslim neighbor in their midst.

Hamas has embarked on a road that is non-compromising towards Israel’s right to exist. It has colored its statements with wild accusations using the terms “occupation and liberation of Palestinian lands” with great fervor. The end of the occupation in Hamas terms is the end of Israel – a sort of Armageddon. There is no hint of any compromising stance in Hamas language. In practical terms, the desire for peace is lacking. Many of us were euphoric with the signing of the Oslo Accords in 1993. We hoped that the end of the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict was close. Today, many of us are disillusioned. The zigzagging of Arafat and the Hamas gaining in strength during the later Intifada years including the cruel terrorist suicide bombers that they sent into Israel had left no illusions as to their aims. This led many of us to believe that achievement of peace between Israel and the Palestinians would remain unattainable.

The Hamas reality and its ideas of genocide is becoming more of a fear in the heart of Israel’s citizens. The Hamas Covenant has made it clear that it is the duty of Muslims to kill Jews at every opportunity. Nothing has come from Hamas to deny this. On the contrary, they are showing signs of developing relations with the notorious Israel-and- Jew-hater, President Mahmoud Ahmadinajad of Iran, in his desire to threaten Israel with her destruction. The relationship between these two evil entities – Hamastan Palestine and Ahmadinajad’s Iran - will grow stronger in the future.

History has a habit of repeating itself using different players under different circumstances and of course in a different era. This is true of Hamas when we compare Hamastan with Nazi Germany of the 1930s. Both regimes gained power through democratic elections. In a way, one could compare Mahmoud Abbas with Germany’s President Paul von Hindenburg before the Nazis won the general elections. Hitler’s ideas of making Germany free of Jews as outlined in his book Mein Kampf makes this very clear. Substitute the garbage that Hitler wrote; superimpose it on the Hamas Covenant when it talks about the destruction of the Jews and you have the Hamas answer to the “Jewish Problem”. We have evidence of Hamas adopting a policy of genocide when it describes what they intend to do with the Jews if given the chance, or alternatively, when they have had enough of the long term “peace treaty” or hudna that they intend to sign with Israel. Hamas when viewed in this light is the reincarnation of Nazism. This reincarnation of Nazism is disturbing in the Middle East.

It is also popular to compare Israel with Apartheid South Africa of old. If anything, Hamas has more similarities to the old Apartheid pseudo-Nazi regime of white South Africa where blacks were discriminated mercilessly. Under Hamas, Jews would be discriminated against mercilessly, if not murdered!

It looks as if there is the materialization of this with the evil axis – Syria the shelter for Hamas exiled leaders such as Khaled Mashal in Damascus, Iran who is showing support for Hamas and Al Qaeda, the latter will become more significant in Gaza and the Sinai Peninsula. This will be a threat to many of Israel’s moderate Arab neighbours such as Jordan and Egypt no less than Israel itself. Recognition of Hamas is the same as recognizing Nazi Germany because both countries elected their respective regimes democratically. Does this give both regimes the right to carry out genocide because their electorate voted for them?

The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians will become more an existentialist problem with the Muslim Brotherhood that has its origins in Egypt and Hamas as its modern offshoot as elected player. Pressure to return territory, occupied in the Six Day War of June 1967, will pale into insignificance. The conflict will become more religiously oriented seeking legitimization in the Quran for the destruction of Israel that Hamas regards as anathema because it is non-Moslem and thus has no right to exist under any conditions. The axiom that Israel is occupied Palestinian lands will gain further strength. A two state solution – Israel and Palestine is not on the agenda. A one state solution replacing Israel is on the Hamas agenda!

What can the world do? Appeasement of Hamas and invitations of Hamas to visit various countries such as Turkey, Russia and various Arab States will only strengthen Hamas and give her more legitimacy. If the world does not view Hamas as an extension of Hezbollah and Al Qaeda and will adopt a policy of appeasement, this will cause Islamist terror to increase. The former glory of Islamism when many countries were conquered under its guise and non-Moslems were forced to convert to Islam or be killed by the sword could show signs of repeating itself.

Israel has no alternative but to apply sanctions on the Palestinian Hamas leadership. After all, Hamas does not recognize Israel and has vowed to carry on the armed struggle until Israel ceases to exist. If the world by passes the sanctions they will be on the Islamist firing line as well. We witnessed many incidents of Islamist Al Qaeda terror over the past decade. These countries opened the doors to Islamist extremists from all over the world and they paid a very heavy price in blood. Let this not happen again!

Hamas is a Palestinian Nazi Movement who is far from being pragmatic and is on the verge of embarking on a policy of attempted genocide.

Hamas is on the Road to Acceptability

Cracks are beginning to appear in the determination not to recognize Hamas. The logic behind these cracks is the growing acceptability of many countries to come to terms with the will of the Palestinian people to change their government. This they had illustrated under international supervision of the democratic Palestinian Elections on 26 January 2006. When the results of a Hamas victory became clear, the US, which had pushed for democratic elections, began to reel as a result. Those who follow the turmoil in the Middle East were least surprised. The Palestinian electorate cast the dye clearly. The Palestinian Electorate had shown their disgust with the corruption of the Palestinian Authority under Fatah rule and also its ineptitude and insensitivity to the massive economic problems that the Palestinians face. The peace process or coming to terms with Israel was not a factor in the minds of the Palestinian People. They were more concerned about their own poor economic situation and suffering. It was a matter of new brooms sweeping clean.

Many countries who maintain good relations with Israel are following Russia’s example and inviting the Hamas leadership to visit their countries. Turkey is the latest example of such a country. This does not leave much room for optimism on the ability of the US and the Quartet to isolate Hamas. Russia is even going to discuss giving the Palestinians a present of two M17 transport helicopters and 50 armored personnel carriers. Does this mean the appeasement of Hamas is fast becoming a reality? After all, Russia does not regard them as a terrorist group. "Armored equipment is also intended for stabilizing the situation," Interfax quoted the Russian Chief of Staff Baluyevsky as saying. It is surrealistic even trying to see the logic in such a statement. We all know what Hamas has done in terror operations against Israel. Giving weapons to them as a reward is absurd and dangerous. Hamas is an Islamist Fascist group of terrorists. Their charter is similar to Hitler’s Mein Kampf according to Avi Dichter, the Kadima candidate for the Knesset and ex-head of the Israeli Security Services.

One thing is certain; Hamas will receive more invitations by many other countries in the guise of helping the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians to move forward. This is an illusion. Khaled Mashal, the exiled Hamas leader residing in Damascus and visiting Turkey is now making statements that Hamas is largely misunderstood. Hamas is now whitewashed and being presented as a legitimate group of peacemakers. Time is not on the side of the US or Israel. The US is adamant in its demand of not recognizing Hamas as a legitimate peace partner. Russia by its deeds has a different opinion. The Russian snowball effect of the appeasement and recognition of Hamas is opening the way for many countries to receive the Hamas leadership with open arms. Egypt has been courting them for some time. After all Hamas is part of the Muslim Brotherhood that is in itself a great headache for President Hosni Mubarak who also handles them carefully.

All these activities of appeasement and legitimization of Hamas will achieve nothing positive. Hamas is determined never to recognize Israel’s right to exist. Hamas is determined to continue the armed struggle against the occupation that has a very wide meaning in Hamas terms. It does not mean only relinquishing territory occupied in the Six Day War of June 1967 but also the total destruction of Israel as a Jewish State. Granting Hamas international recognition will only strengthen Hamas’s hand in carrying on terror against Israel. It will also strengthen the relationship between Iran and Hamas ruled Palestine. The consequences would be very grave indeed with further Islamist extremism becoming the order of the day in the Middle East, which means a war against non-Moslems. According to the Hamas Charter, Arab territory occupied by a non-Moslem entity (the “Zionist Entity” as they call it) is unacceptable. It is the duty of Moslems to wage war until they achieve their goal. Who is the world bluffing these days? The only concession that they are prepared to make is a long-term temporary peace treaty or hudna until they (the “Hamasniks”) have gained enough strength militarily to achieve their aim of destroying Israel.

The Legitimization of Hamas

Russia has done it again! The ex Soviet Union has left a legacy of placating Israel’s enemies in the past. Why should we show surprise at Russia’s President Vladimir Putin when he makes overtures to Hamas by inviting the Hamas leadership to Russia? This legacy is continuing! Surely, this is the beginning of the legitimization of Hamas! It seems as if some countries are waiting in the shadows for a power within the Quartet to make the first overture. This has occurred and it will result in cracks in the so-called determination of Europe not to recognize Hamas until it lays down its arms and recognizes Israel’s right to exist. Countries in line for recognizing Hamas as the representatives of the Palestinians are (not unexpectedly) Iran, China, Syria and Sudan. Those countries in the wings are Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar who are having talks with the Hamas leadership. This tendency of recognition will snow ball and the West will slide into the expediency of accepting Hamas despite the dangers that lurk in this strategy.

As the situation stands, the US, Great Britain and France still express opposition to Hamas and indications are that they will remain steadfast in that. France may disappoint all by finding a reason for negotiating with Hamas in the end as she had done with previous terror groups. Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, speaking at the news conference with Putin, said Madrid would support Russia's peace initiatives. This surprising behaviour does not leave Israel with much hope in trusting Russia’s strategy, which appears to be rather devious. While the world accepts Hamas’s electoral victory in the Palestinian election and this in itself grants her the status of being the representatives of the Palestinian People for good or bad. A similar parallel occurred in Germany in 1933 when the German People elected the Nazi Party under Hitler. The Nazis had used the democratic institutions of Germany in order to gain power.  Afterwards they abolished these institutions by oppressing the opposition and establishing a one-party state thus destroying democracy. The destruction of the small spark of democracy resulting in Hamas’s electoral victory is a strong possibility. If there are parallels between Nazi Germany and Hamas rule in Palestine, signs of the appeasement of the latter observed by Putin’s attitude towards hosting Hamas is similar to the appeasement of Hitler policy of late PM Neville Chamberlain of Great Britain in 1938 when he signed the Munich Agreement.

Russia seems to overlook the support that Hamas had given to the Moslem Chechen rebels who fought the Russian Army. Putin does not regard Hamas as a terrorist organization. The logic of Vladimir Putin’s attitude towards Hamas is odd and complex. Perhaps he does not see Hamas as a threat to Russian interests. If Russia was responsible in supplying Iran with nuclear expertise then we must see their attitude towards Hamas within that context. Russia’s economy is in the doldrums and perhaps this is their way of trying to gain influence in rogue regimes such as Iran and possibly Hamas ruled Palestine as well. Perhaps this is Russia’s way of trying to regain influence in the Middle East conflict, which serves its interests.

Those who support Hamas fail to realize that Hamas is a fascist group who wishes to destroy Israel. Hamas is a terrorist organization that will destroy the pseudo-democracy that put them into power. The Palestinian people will not benefit from the election of Hamas and its uncompromising attitude towards peace with Israel. Those countries that appease Hamas are doing a disservice towards peace between Israel and the Palestinians. It will only strengthen the resolve of Hamas to continue its terrorist activity against Israel. Hamas has not shown any signs of change in attitude towards recognizing Israel’s right to exist or giving up the “armed struggle” for Palestinian independence, which in simple terms means a Palestinian State that replaces Israel.

The lip service paid towards strengthening President Mahmoud Abbas is a non-starter. He represents nobody. His party has lost the Palestinian Elections and propping him up artificially will not achieve anything apart from further antagonism towards Israel. He did not receive a mandate from the Palestinian people to form the next Government. He had done nothing to curb terror attacks against Israel in the past and he will not disarm Hamas and its ally, Islamic Jihad, in the future.

Perhaps change can come from outside pressure by boycotting the Palestinian Authority the moment Hamas takes over from the interim period of anarchy that is present now. Israel, for her part, could take drastic measures by cutting off electricity and water supplies to Hamas ruled Palestine if Hamas continues to encourage terror against Israel. Why should Israel supply the Hamas regime with essential services when they sponsor Qassam rocket fire into Israel as well as other terrorist acts?

The Cartoons of Blasphemy

On 30 September 2005, Jylands-Posten, the Danish Newspaper, had printed twelve cartoons. These cartoons did not cause much of a stir at the time, apart from peaceful protest in Copenhagen organized by the Muslim Community. What was it that caused such a widespread reaction a few days ago? Suddenly many devout Muslims all over the world took strong exception to these cartoons, regarding them as blasphemy and went on the rampage. There is hardly a country, with a sizeable Muslim Community, that did not have violent demonstrations against the Danes. This illustration of violence and the extreme reaction to these cartoons brings home the message that “something is rotten in the state of Denmark, O cursed spite that ever a leader will be born to set it right” (with apologies to William Shakespeare).

Is there really something rotten in Denmark? Probably not! Denmark, like much of Europe today has become the home of a sizeable Muslim Community. The Muslims see themselves as a persecuted minority. Their religious values are very different from western values. Perhaps there is certain insensitivity by the West in recognizing this as was demonstrated by the extreme Islamist violence that occurred all over the world. This could also be due to ignorance and lack of understanding of those who are observant Muslims. Democracy in Islam, as non-Muslims in the West view it, does not exist. Mohammed, the prophet, is seen as infallible, holy and is regarded as the supreme messenger of God. The idea of using Mohammed as a symbol for caricature is unacceptable to devout Muslims all over the world. One never sees Mohammed’s face in any Muslim art work.

Those who value democracy and feel that it is legitimate to satirize religion do not take into consideration the feelings of many religious people irrespective of their faith. Jewish people have had a bitter experience with anti-Semitic Der Steurmer cartoons against them during the rule of Hitler in Nazi Germany. Today there are cartoons depicting Jews in a derogatory manner in many Islamic newspapers. These Arab countries are not democratic at all but they give their caricaturists freedom to depict Jews in an anti-Semitic way. Jews have protested against these cartoons but there was never any wide scale violence or demonization of the nations from where the cartoons originated. Muslim fanatics have overreacted in a violent way that has crossed every red line of reason.

The chief rabbi of France, Joseph Sitruk, and many other Jewish leaders had condemned the cartoons using the Jewish experience in anti-Semitism as reason for showing sensitivity towards religious feelings not only of devout Muslims but towards all faiths. This is commendable of course.

On the other hand, the world has not been the same since that fateful day on September 11, 2001 when Al Qaeda Muslim fanatics crashed two passenger planes into the Trade Center in Manhattan, NY, resulting in the deaths of over 3000 innocent people. Since then there has been so many incidents of fanatic Islamist terror all over the world, many newspapers have adopted a cynical attitude towards Islam, which is a reflection of the average non-Muslim’s fears of Islam. Many people in Europe and the rest of the western world view Islam as a violent religion whose aim is the conversion of non-Muslims to Islam. All means of achieving this aim is legitimate as far as these Islamist fanatics are concerned. The Islamist suicide bomber and the 70 virgins in heaven waiting for him has become a symbol of Islam in the eyes of many. The frequency of violent Islamist terror had played its part in the demonization of Islam in the eyes of many. The production of satirical cartoons poking fun at Islam in the name of freedom of the press is a result of this. The western democracies had enough of imported Islamist terror in their countries!

Israel has suffered from suicide bomb attacks initiated and organized by Hamas and Islamic Jihad who to this day do not recognize Israel’s right to exist. These groups are linked to Hezbollah in Lebanon and possibly to Al Qaeda as well. Lately Iran has been threatening Israel’s destruction. It will form part of this unholy alliance of hate for anything associated with Israel and the West.

The fact that an insignificant matter like satirical cartoons directed at Islamist terror has caused such a violent reaction in the fanatic elements of Islam proves how fragile relationships are between Europe, U.S and the Muslim world.

The Evacuation of Amona

Amona is an illegal outpost that is an extension of Ofra in the territories. Last week we witnessed the evacuation of Amona, which left many of us in shock. The shock was not from the action of evacuation but the reaction to the evacuation. There was so much stock piling of homemade “weapons” if one could call it that. The kippa-cladded hooligans with “tsitsit” were there again in full force. The scenario was rather similar prior to the evacuation of Gush Katif in August 2005, where all kinds of rather interesting innovations were used against the Security Forces. These hooligans, many of whom were not more than 14 or 15 years of age, were sent by their parents to wage their wars against law and order in the evacuation of illegal outposts.

There does not seem to be any limit to the violence of these right wing protesters. After all these years of the intifada, it seems that many of the parents of these hooligans had learned something from the Palestinians – to send their children into the thick of the fray. This tactic was effective in Palestinian street during the intifada years. They allowed their children to demonstrate violently against the police who were carrying out their duty to evacuate the illegal outpost. The authorities must hold the parents accountable for the violence that occurred including the injuries sustained.

To add fat on the fire of hate for law and order, the right wing members of the Knesset who were present are not blameless either. Their presence is a provocation for violence taking into account their extremist right wing views and sympathy for the teenage violators of the law. It is a disgrace if members of the Knesset instigate right wing violence against authority. After all, MKs should set an example against violence. Instead, they were involved in the provocation of the violence. They are accountable for what had happened no less than the parents of these hooligans.

The violence was great. The scenario of violent hooligans tempered with determination not to cooperate with the authorities was a scene that was unacceptable. Israel had signed agreements with the US on evacuation; even if it is unilateral, it does not give the settlers and their supporters the right to behave the way they did. What is even more galling is the fact that these kids took the law into their own hands and decided who was allowed into the beleaguered outpost and who was not.

There is no doubt that what had occurred in Amona was the result of the radical right wing (could one call it Zionist?) ideology which placed more importance on occupation of greater Israel rather than decency, justice and Israel’s long term interests. Something is rotten in “Settlerstan” no less than in “Hamastan”. It seems that this right wing form of settler religious fundamentalism is just as dangerous as the fundamentalist Islam of Hamas. Both are enemies of peace! While it is true that Israel has no real partner for peace especially since the Hamas victory, this does not justify the behaviour of right wing religious zealots under the questionable guidance of their radical rabbis. What has happened to religious Zionism if it closes its eyes to these acts of violence? There is a polarization of Judaism in the territories with the anarchy of the so-called religious youth taking the helm and becoming a dangerous element running out of control. In the future, there will be further evacuations of illegal outposts and violent scenarios will accompany these evacuations.

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The Green Revolution in Palestine

The worst scenario imaginable from Israel’s point of view (and perhaps from that of the U.S., European Union, and the UN) has occurred. Hamas had won the Palestinian Elections by an absolute majority. This means that they can form the next Palestinian Government without signing coalition agreements with other political parties. This is a great day for Palestinian democracy, which has given an opportunity for the Palestinian People to say the last word in a relatively peaceful manner. Maybe it is the positive aspect of the Palestinian elections. A form of democracy did play its part in the decision of the Palestinian People.

This is perhaps as far as it goes. Hamas has been taken by surprise no less than Fatah; this means that Israel will be changing her tactics towards the Palestinians. The EU and the US have already expressed their opposition to Hamas and have given indications that they will not negotiate with the terrorist organization. Perhaps the Hamas win has cleared the air from many points of view and this is positive. The situation between Israel and the Palestinians can now be viewed in black and white terms rather than in shades of gray. An implacable enemy is now facing Israel without any masking or two-pronged approach towards peace as under Mahmoud Abbas and his predecessor, the deceased Yasser Arafat. There were overtures towards peace while Hamas and Islamic Jihad terror against Israel was occurring at the same time. Hamas was responsible for the terrorist acts against Israel over the last decade if not more and had opposed all negotiations for peace with Israel. They never recognized the Oslo Accords of 1993 or Israel for that matter. Their covenant is clear about its attitude towards Israel. There does not seem much chance of them giving up the armed struggle against Israel in the near future.

From this point of view, it will be easier for Israel to act against Hamas if the latter decides to renew terrorist activity. In the past, the world adopted a conciliatory stance towards the Palestinians. The EU and the US had requested Israel to act with restraint against terror so that Mahmoud Abbas could do his job of disarming terror groups, which he never did. He knew that his position was untenable and weak. He was unable to stop the terror against Israel. Now the situation is clearer. Hamas is a terrorist organization! She still carries weapons for the “armed struggle” against Israel’s existence. She has made no conciliatory statements towards negotiations with Israel or disarming her terrorist militias.

Hamas has won the elections because of the dissatisfaction of the Palestinian People with the corrupt Palestinian Authority. The US, EU, and much of the world have poured money into Palestine. The Palestinian Authority does not seem accountable for the money. It had disappeared into the private coffers of Palestinian Authority members who became prosperous fat cats at the expense of their people. The Palestinians remained poor and economically deprived. This had given impetus to the strengthening of Hamas who had developed many social services that had helped the poverty stricken in many ways. The Palestinian Authority had created a poverty vacuum filled by Hamas. It is unlikely that the disengagement from Gaza had facilitated the catapulting of Hamas into power. Hamas gave the Palestinian People hope for a better life by personal example. Hamas, in the eyes of the Palestinian people, was not corrupt and appeared to care for their welfare. The Palestinian Authority was oblivious to their people’s woes and now they have paid the price! The Palestinian vote was an anti-Fatah vote rather than a pro-Hamas vote. The Palestinians want change and had enough of the cronyism and nepotism of the Palestinian Authority. The Hamas propaganda machine was a great success and their sweeping victory proved that. It remains to be seen whether they will become pragmatic, come to terms with Israel’s existence, and cease their terror. They have stated that they are prepared to sign a temporary cease-fire agreement or hudna with Israel on condition that Israel does not attack them. Maybe this is their form of beginning to climb down the tree of non-recognition. Who knows? Time will tell if this is the case. To date this is the only real indication of a form of non-belligerency on Hamas’s part. It is clearly not enough!

Another rather interesting observation is Hamas’s need for Mahmoud Abbas as a prop for their regime. Mahmoud Abbas does have legitimacy in the world that Hamas lacks. They need him as a go-between. He would give the human face that Hamas needs in the world while at the same time Hamas would have the option of carrying out terrorist attacks against Israel. Apart from that, Hamas has no experience in government. It was involved in terror and not in government. Many of us hope that the world will not fall for that tactic. As the situation stands now, Saeb Eraket, the Fatah representative, has stated that they will not be part of a Hamas led coalition. Inclusion of Fatah in this coalition would be bad for renewal of the peace process with Israel that is already in tatters. On the other hand, if Fatah makes recognition of Israel and disarmament of Hamas militias a precondition in negotiating a coalition agreement then it would be very positive for the future of peace in this area.

The interests of Palestine are intertwined with achieving peace with Israel. Israel supplies Palestine with electricity, wages of government workers and water. If Hamas does not renounce their aggressive covenant against Israel, the latter will take unilateral measures that would not serve Palestinian interests. They could cut their funds to the Palestinian Authority. It would be interesting to see how Hamas would still maintain their support of their people under these conditions! This scenario could result in Iran filling the financial vacuum and begin pouring funds into the Palestinian Government coffers. This could create a very hostile Iranian-Syrian-Al Qaeda axis, which would not be conducive to peace in the Middle East. The ramifications for increased terror activity against Israel and the world are clear.

An interesting development resulting from the Palestinian Elections is world determination not to negotiate or recognize Hamas until it abandons terror, recognizes Israel’s right to exist and disarms its armed terrorist militias. This gives Israel more leeway in dealing with Palestinian terror without the veiled condemnation of the world and the UN. Israel has already shown its attitude towards the latest developments which coincides with world opinion. She is prepared to negotiate with Hamas if the latter relinquishes terror, disarms and recognizes Israel’s right to exist.

Hamas has won the Palestinian Elections. In order to recover form the shock, I thought that it would be a good idea to have some time out and share some photographs that I had taken on my last visit to Kirstenbosch Botanical Gardens, Cape Town, South Africa in August 2004.The flowers in the foreground are Pin Cushions which are part of the Protea family.  

Kirstenbosch Botanical Gardens

Proteas in Kirstenbosch Botanical Gardens, Cape Town, South Africa

Protea in Kirstenbosch Botanical Gardens Cape Town South Africa 

Cycad in Kirstenbosch Botanical Gardens Cape Town South Africa

The situation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is so volatile with its ups and downs. Now the results of a rather close electoral contest betweeen Hamas and the ruling Fatah are arriving with a large edge on Hamas. During this period of waiting for the final results, I have decided to add this photograph of a Cycad that have nothing to do with the conflict in order to refresh our fatigued minds and spirit. I hope that readers will enjoy these photographs as much as I have enjoyed taking them. These pictures were taken on my last trip to Cape Town, South Africa on a family visit to my land of birth.

The Upcoming Palestinian Elections

There is an increasing amount of activity in Palestinian Street as the elections draw closer. According to the latest polls, Fatah is just easing ahead of Hamas by a very narrow margin. The chances that the gap between the two main contenders for the Palestinian Legislature will close and Hamas could become the winners.

The method of campaigning is very odd indeed. The Palestinian leadership pays lip service to democratic elections but in practice there is much rifle toting and shots fired in the air and occasionally at one another. Those who bear arms are masked gunmen of all persuasions. There is an air of total anarchy and violence. Which international observer (or group of international observers) would brave the bullets and come to oversee these elections? The naivety of many countries who wish to see a democratic electoral process unfold in the Palestinian camp without intrigue or violence will be greatly disappointed. As 25 January 2006 looms closer, so will the violence. Many of the splinter extremist Palestinian groups will do everything in their power to upset the almost moribund democratic electoral process. Islamic Jihad is an example of a terrorist group that is uncompromising even towards the Palestinian people and will step up terror against Israel in order to throw a spanner into the rather shaky democratic electoral works.

Perhaps, if by chance, these elections run smoothly and Hamas does win, it could clear the air and make a peace process with Israel more feasible. Oh! Eyebrows are being raised at this possibility! Yes! The fact that Hamas has decided to take part in the elections that have shaky foundations is a positive sign. They are trying to gain legitimacy in the eyes of their people. At the same time, they have decided to take on professional help in order to improve their image. They want to prove that they are an alternative to the present weak, corrupt and spineless Palestinian Authority. They have a clean record so far and are not tainted with corruption as the present Palestinian Authority.

Hamas is now a group in transition from being a fundamental terrorist organization to a political party that sees itself as an alternative government elected by the majority of the Palestinian electorate. There have been hints of this fundamental change in their attitude. If they win, they may show signs of pragmatism and come to terms with Israel’s existence. Much work remains in rebuilding the future Palestinian state. The present Palestinian Authority under Mahmoud Abbas and his predecessor, the late Yasser Arafat, have neglected this. Corruption and anarchy is rife in Palestine and this cannot continue, as no country in the world will give much needed financial aid to the Palestinians if there is such instability coupled with corruption and bribery as at present.

Shimon Peres, who has changed his loyalties from the Labour Party and joined the Kadima Party, has even stated that Kadima will be prepared to negotiate with Hamas if they lay down their arms. As it is, Hamas has signed a truce and has not been involved in terror against Israel for quite a while now. In a way, there is a feeling of déjà vu. Prior to the Madrid Peace Conference of 30th October 1991, it was illegal for anybody to meet with the Palestinian Liberation Organization of Yasser Arafat. It was considered a terror organization. The Oslo Accords of 13 September 1993, despite its well-known failings, was a start towards the peace process. The PLO became legitimate in Israel’s eyes. We are reaching a similar stage with Hamas assuming they win the Palestinian Elections.

On the other hand, the danger that Hamas may be using its future gained legitimacy to erode Israel’s security and accelerate Israel’s destruction is also a strong possibility especially in view of what is going on in Iran under their leader Mahmoud Ahmadinajad who has been calling for Israel’s destruction. A possible alliance between Hamas, Syria and Iran is a danger to Israel. This scenario is a possibility if Hamas does not show pragmatism in recognizing Israel’s right to exist assuming that they win the elections.

The Political Tempest in Israel and Palestine

So much has occurred in this part of the world over the last month. Ariel Sharon’s serious health condition and the new political realignments in Israel have contributed to an increasing amount of liquidity in Israeli politics. Prior to Ariel Sharon’s severe stroke, the doctors who had treated him for a mild stroke two weeks earlier declared him fit to continue his political activities. So much was at stake for Ariel Sharon at that time. Perhaps the medical staff discharged Ariel Sharon too early from hospital. Naturally, one is wiser after Ariel Sharon’s severe stroke and this conclusion is axiomatic.

After PM Sharon’s severe cerebral haemorrhage, the bulletins on Sharon’s health were frequent. Now there seems to be some coming to terms with Sharon’s tragic condition and after a political respite from infighting, the political situation is heating up and old alliances are breaking up across the political spectrum as the Israeli elections draw closer.

The latest party to fall is the Shinui Party, which has been rocked by political infighting. Their primary result was a disaster for its leader, Tommy Lapid and his deputy Avraham Poraz. The polls have indicated that this party is going to lose heavily and may not even have any representation in the Knesset. It is a party built on anti ultra-Orthodox sentiments and has nothing to offer to the Israeli electorate. Its disappearance from the Israeli political scene will not be a great tragedy.

The Likud Party will also suffer severe losses and the unpredictable results of its primaries have left a bad taste in the mouth of its leader Benjamin Netanyahu. The Likud power is no loss either. It has become more right wing since Ariel Sharon’s resignation, taking with him the cream of the Likud hierarchy prior to his illness.

The Labour Party under Amir Peretz is also showing signs of decreasing support. According to the latest polls, both Likud and Labour will have equal support with Labour perhaps edging slightly ahead of the Likud. Amir Peretz is prone to demagoguery on economic issues that adversely affect the weaker sectors of Israeli society. This may snowball on his ability to win the elections. The smaller parties will all lose as the electorate move towards supporting Kadima under Ehud Olmert, the acting prime minister. Amir Peretz is also a dove which does not fit in with the idea of negotiating with the Palestinians especially now with indications that Hamas may win the Palestinian elections.

Traditional loyalties to the main parties are conspicuous by its absence. Never has there been such fluidity in traditional voting patterns. Many of us are in total confusion as for whom to vote. The Meretz-Yahad Party will also lose a seat or two in the upcoming elections. One thing is certain and that is whoever wins will not gain an absolute majority and the dirty game of political wheeling and dealing in the aftermath of the elections will take place. There will be major compromises on all political fronts in the mad scramble for seats and crumbs from the party that gains the most seats with its upper hand in conducting coalition talks.

The Israeli electorate will move towards a central position. There will be a strong desire to carry on Sharon’s policies of disengagement from various parts of the occupied West Bank even if this does not bring peace between Israel and the Palestinians. However, the Israeli electorate does not want any compromises on security. This will result in “ghettoizing” the Palestinians even further. Apart from uprooting various small, illegal settlements beyond the green line, it is doubtful if there will be much change from the present situation under a Kadima led coalition.

The Palestinian elections are also a strong factor that will influence the Israeli electorate. Hamas are showing signs of increasing their support amongst the Palestinians. This could have an effect on pushing the Israeli electorate towards a more right wing stance, helping the Likud gain more seats. On the other hand, Hamas may show signs of becoming more pragmatic as they take over the reins of power. This could surprise us all although the chance of that occurring is very remote! While they may not recognize Israel’s right to exist officially, they may become more amenable to negotiating a settlement with Israel in the form of some long-term (or indefinite) “hudna”. This would weaken the ability of Islamic Jihad and various other splinter terrorist groups from carrying out terrorist attacks against Israel. Meanwhile Palestinian street is in total anarchy. There are armed brigades shooting and killing at will and threatening any semblance of law and order. The odd Qassam or two is still landing on the outskirts of Ashkelon. The Palestinian Authority is losing control over the situation. They still show no desire to disarm terrorist gangs in the streets of Gaza. Turmoil will be the order of the day in Palestinian street. There will be no winners in Palestine. The losers will be the Palestinian people and this will affect the Israelis as well. As the situation stands, there is no viable partner for negotiating a peace settlement with Israel. A Palestinian state under these circumstances will recede further from reality unless Hamas changes its uncompromising attitude towards Israel’s existence and becomes a responsible instrument of government amenable to negotiations.

The Ariel Sharon Enigma

“Legacy” is a rather lofty word when referring to Ariel Sharon’s policies. Perhaps it would be better to use the term “direction”. Ariel Sharon’s policies or direction is rather contradictory. A feeling of indifference to Ariel Sharon is impossible. One either supports him or opposes him. One can oppose him in the past and support him in the present or vice versa.

He does invoke strong feelings one way or the other.

Sharon’s enemies see him as a warmonger or murderer. His supporters see him as a hero and true patriot. He had made many mistakes in the past as in the Lebanon War of 1982, including the indirect responsibility for the Sabra and Shatilla massacre in the refugee camps around Beirut. However, he has redeemed himself in the eyes of many world leaders with his bold decisions on unilateral disengagement from Gaza.

History will judge him in a mixed way – a hero to some and an implacable enemy to others. He is a man of determination and guts carrying out his decisions despite opposition even if it means uprooting Jewish settlements beyond the green line. He had made an about turn in his ideology of settlements beyond the green line when he felt that it was an obstacle to unilateral disengagement from the Palestinians. Peace with the Palestinians in his view was not an option, but unilateral disengagement is. The future will tell whether his successor will move in Sharon's direction, assuming the Kadima Party wins in the upcoming general election.

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and the Aftermath

Ariel Sharon has proved to be a very controversial figure in Israeli politics as well as in the military sphere. His enemies viewed him as a warmonger and ruthless murderer. He is also the father of the settler movement beyond the green line - a grandfather figure - whose interests were the wellbeing of the Israeli people and a war hero. He reached the climax of his military career in the October War of 1973, when his forces encircled the Egyptian 3rd Army after they had crossed the Suez Canal and regained the honour that they lost in the Six Day War of June 1967. When Ariel Sharon made a decision, he kept it and carried it out, “bulldozing” all those who opposed him.

Ariel Sharon is a man of many facets who had made many mistakes. One of these mistakes was the conduct of the Lebanese War of 1982 that he had initiated under the Begin Likud Government at the time. Sharon’s enemies held Ariel Sharon responsible for the Sabra and Shatila Massacres of refugees in the Beirut refugee camps. A commission of enquiry into this tragedy – the Kahan Commission - was established and found Sharon indirectly responsible for what had occurred.

For many of us, the highlight of Sharon’s political career was his bold decision to disengage from Gaza and uprooting the Jewish settlements there. Many in his Likud Party had opposed him in this. He proved himself a pragmatic politician, acknowledging the mistakes of his past ideology concerning Greater Israel and the settler movements of colonization of territory occupied in the Six Day War of 1967. His direction had undergone a total change towards compromise and an end to the occupation even if it meant making unilateral decisions on disengagement from the Palestinians. His goal was disengagement from the Palestinian territories whether there was a partner for peace on the Palestinian side or not. Even if the Palestinian leadership under Mahmoud Abbas was not prepared to disarm the terrorist groups in their midst, this did not influence Ariel Sharon’s decisions of unilateral disengagement. Perhaps one could speculate that had Ariel Sharon not suffered such a severe blow to his health, he would have continued on the path of more unilateral disengagement after re-election. Ariel Sharon had moved ahead with the times realizing that the dream of Greater Israel as envisaged by the Likud had reached a dead end.

The serious cerebral hemorrhage that struck him done in the midst of such a vital point in his career is a terrible tragedy of national proportion. It is possible that the medical staff over treated Ariel Sharon with various anti-coagulant drugs, contributed to his critical condition. We all hope that he will survive this and return to many years of good health. Ariel Sharon’s political career has come to an abrupt end. Personally, I never supported his policies in the past, but times have changed and he had made great strides towards peace within the last year with the Gaza disengagement despite much opposition within his own party. This had forced him out of his party. He established the centre Kadima Party with supporters from his old Likud Party, and even some Labour Party members joined him. His ex right wing supporters in the Likud had hounded and almost demonized him prior to the disengagement. At a Likud Convention, those who opposed his policies disconnected his microphone while he gave a speech. The orange ribbon settlers and supporters - opposed Ariel Sharon’s disengagement decisions. His political life within the Likud became intolerable for him. There were pulsa de nura ceremonies by the right wing “religious” lunatic fringe praying for Sharon’s demise. However, this did not deter him from carrying out his decision. He had assessed (correctly) that most of the Israeli electorate supported him as illustrated in the political polls taken at regular intervals.

Many people view the Kadima Party established by Ariel Sharon as a one-man party. Now that Ariel Sharon has left the scene, the future of Kadima is uncertain. Many politicians joined the party because of Ariel Sharon. Shimon Peres is an example. He has kept very quiet about his political future within that party. He has not said that he will support the party, apart from paying lip service to supporting Ariel Sharon. Does this mean that he could return to the Labour Party? Now, he is keeping quiet on that matter and has offered his support to Ehud Olmert, the acting Prime Minister, who has joined Kadima and is one of the initial strong supporters of Ariel Sharon. There are unofficial behind the scenes discussions within Labour to bring Shimon Peres back into the fold. It is possible that this option is still open for him.

Kadima is showing a semblance of unity while Ariel Sharon is fighting for his life. A question mark remains whether the various members of Kadima will return to their previous political home. Much depends on the ability of Ehud Olmert to maintain unity with his unproven leadership qualities. According to the latest polls, there is still strong public support for Kadima – more than for any other political party. Will Ehud Olmert be able to maintain this momentum? Time will tell.

Sharon’s legacy could keep many people within Kadima. There is no doubt that Sharon is a remarkable personality who had contributed much to Israel and its people. History will judge whether his contribution will promote peace between Israel and the Palestinians. His stature in the world had risen to great heights as a peacemaker from that of a much-maligned general responsible for the suffering of the Palestinians because of carrying out military options against Palestinian terror. He had gone against the mainstream of the Likud that he had established by acknowledging the importance of ending the occupation and the establishment of a Palestinian state. He is aware that the way the situation stands today, and with the possibility of the Palestinian electorate increasing their support for Hamas, there is no partner on the Palestinian side with whom to come to a peace agreement. His legacy involves many unilateral decisions of disengagement from the occupied territories. The implementation of these decisions under the new Kadima leadership with the strong “Ariel Sharon resolve” to carry them out is a big looming question mark for the future.